Over the past decade, nations bordering on the Arctic have found
themselves with a big new security problem. The melting of the arctic
ice has opened up shipping lanes and opportunities for the exploitation
for undersea resources, but has also exposed vulnerabilities for
countries that have long considered their northern frontier secure.
It’s not surprising that Russia has prepared its military
for arctic operations better than any other country. During the Cold
War, the Soviet Union prepared to fight across the Arctic, both in the
air and at sea. Many of the weapons and much of the expertise from that
era have remained, leaving the Kremlin with a lethal set of
capabilities. Here are five systems we can expect Russia to use in order
to defend its interests in the Arctic Ocean, in case the unthinkable
ever occurred.
Icebreakers:
The single most important vessel for access to the arctic is the
icebreaker, and Russia retains the most extensive fleet of icebreakers
anywhere in the world. Warming does not eliminate arctic ice, but
instead makes the movement of ice more fluid and less predictable. As
access to the Arctic improves, and as the commercial interest in
exploiting the region increases, the movement of ice and increased
frequency of military and civilian use will make icebreakers more
necessary than ever. Both civilian and military ships will require the
support of icebreakers in order to proceed with their regular tasks, and
for the foreseeable future, Russia is best equipped to serve as the
guarantor of global access to the Arctic.
Under the auspices of its civilian nuclear-power agency, Russia
operates four nuclear-powered, ocean-going icebreakers—ships that have
sufficient power and range to support military expeditions across the Arctic.
Russia also has a wide array of conventionally powered icebreakers at
its disposal. By contrast, the United States has access only to a trio
of U.S. Coast Guard icebreakers, as well as to a handful of Canadian
Coast Guard vessels.
Icebreakers guarantee Russian military access to the Arctic with a
certainty that no other country enjoys. This gives Russia great freedom
in planning its military and resource access strategy in the polar
region.
Akula:
Sometimes the best way to manage ice is to avoid it altogether. The
American, British and Soviet navies tangled extensively under the Arctic
Ocean during the Cold War, as boomers and attack subs tracked one
another. Russian submariners have extensive experience operating in the
Arctic, and an extensive support structure in old Soviet bases along the
ocean’s rim.
The premier Russian nuclear attack vessel remains the Akula, a
monster of a boat that can carry a vast arsenal of weapons. Although
built in the 1980s, the Akula can operate effectively in anti-submarine
roles (either under the ice or under open seas), and in anti-shipping
roles (where a reduction in surface ice can make cruise missiles
somewhat more effective). The Akula isn’t quite as quiet as its Western
counterparts, but it makes up for that deficiency in size and weapons
load. The Russian Northern Fleet, normally tasked with arctic ops,
currently maintains six Akulas, which regularly operate under the
icepack.
MiG-31:
 |
| MiG-31 |
Even as the sea ice clears, conditions in the Arctic will make it
difficult to conduct carrier operations, increasing the importance of
land-based aircraft. Operating from bases along the rim of the Arctic, the MiG-31 Foxhound—a fast, long-legged interceptor developed from the MiG-25 Foxbat, can cover a lot of space.
The MiG-31 and its predecessor were designed to hunt and kill
American bombers as they attempted to penetrate Soviet air defenses.
Although the MiG-25 performed only adequately when pressed into an
air-to-air combat role, the Foxhound has better radars and superior
maneuverability, making it a more effective air-superiority platform.
To be sure, the Foxhound would struggle in a tangle against the most
advanced generation-4.5 and generation-5 fighters the United States has
to offer, but given the lack of bases, they may not be around to fight.
The Foxhound can make mach 2.83 at altitude, with a combat radius of
about 900 miles. Russia operates around 200 MiG-31s between the Navy and
the Air Force, and has taken steps to revive and improve the
infrastructure to support its arctic airbases.
Tu-95/Tu-142
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| Tu-95 |
The Tu-95 Bear is one of the oldest combat aircraft still
operational. Like the B-52, it flies in a strategic environment far from
what its engineers intended in the 1950s. However, like the B-52 the
Tu-95, has proven a very flexible airframe, and its variants have long
operated in a maritime patrol configuration. The Tu-95 (and its maritime
variant, the Tu-142) are particularly at home in the cold, bleak skies
of the arctic, where land bases are distant and carrier operations often
impractical.
In its classic Tu-95 variant, the Bear can carry anti-ship and
anti-surface cruise missiles. Its maritime patrol variant, the Tu-142,
can conduct anti-submarine operations. With a combat radius upwards of
3000 miles, the Bear can operate well beyond the reach of land- and
carrier-based fighters, which is fortunate, because the Bear can no
longer run from enemy interceptors. As with the B-52, Russia expects the
Bear to continue in service for several more decades, providing a
proven sea-control option.
Special Forces:
The Arctic Ocean lacks large landmasses and significant population
centers. The forbidding climate makes even the largest islands virtually
uninhabitable. In these conditions, the military has little use for
large infantry or armored formations. Instead, formations that emphasize
mobility and lethality carry the day.
Russian special forces have long prepared for warfare in the arctic.
During the Cold War, Spetsnaz teams trained to attack NATO installations
in Norway, the Faroes, Iceland and elsewhere. In recent years, Russia
has stepped up training of special-forces formations intended
for deployment in the Arctic. Submarines, aircraft and surface ships
can deliver these teams, which can take and hold inaccessible areas,
conduct reconnaissance and disrupt communications. Special forces can
also assist in search and rescue missions of civilian workers and teams
in inaccessible regions.
Conclusion
The legacy systems of the Cold War have left Russia well prepared for
competition over the Arctic. Russia’s challenge will be to maintain
these systems in service (the Bear and the Foxhound have grown long in
the tooth, as have many of the icebreakers) and develop effective
replacements. Russia’s current financial problems, associated with the
collapse of oil prices and the sanctions imposed by the West, will make it difficult for the military to pursue an effective transformation strategy.
However, if climate change continues as many models expect, the
responsibilities and opportunities for the Russian military in the
Arctic will only increase.
Taken from: nationalinterest.org
Taken from: nationalinterest.org
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